History is doomed to repeat itself because investor (human) psychology doesn't change.

Want to win the investing and wealth creation game?

• Learn patience and stay calm and logical.

• Learn financial and economic history, and learn it well.

• Read factual articles and data feeds, listen to quality podcasts and speakers, and think about the possible future impacts/scenarios of what you just discovered.

"What history teaches us is that people do not learn from history" - Warren Buffett

I have been around long enough to have seen and experienced numerous housing booms and busts.

I have seen numerous stock market booms and busts.

I have seen the prices of commodities rise and fall numerous times.

I have seen interest rates rise and fall.

There have been several wars and terror attacks affecting markets and economies. Recently, the world has experienced a pandemic like no other. We have seen various hyped-up "industries" that went nowhere, and others that went on to change the world.

However, none of the above are isolated incidents. These events (with the exception of the pandemic) have been repeated over and again over the last 80 or so years, and more frequently in the last 30 years.

So, if you understand what happened at these various incidents in time, what factors led to these incidents to cause them, as well as how the various markets were affected, then you will have a higher chance of prediciting future events and outcomes, and in doing so, use this to your advantage to invest accordingly and increase your net wealth.

One recent example is the panic selling of equities and property during the GFC. While everyone was busy selling, the smart money was busy buying at bargain basement prices.

The sellers were losing money while the buyers made big gains over the following years.

Another example was the dot-com bubble in 2000. The smart money mostly stayed away from internet stocks (read the Warren Buffet notes from this era), while the silly money made some crazy bets on some dumb companies that listed and made huge promises and those companies eventually disappeared. The shareholders lost big time!

In the latest example, we have just started Q2 in 2022. In Q1, Russia invaded the Ukrane. The result of this invasion means lower food production in Europe (Ukrane is the food bowl of Europe), fuel supplies have been drastically reduced (Russia and Ukrane supply most of Europes energy needs). The invasion has led to a bear market in equities after a post pandemic record bull market.

The shortages in Europe have also created a commodities boom, with fuel and energy prices hitting all-time highs as well as agricultiural food product prices increasing. As a result, inflation has increased substantially (and I believe will continue to do so). Of course, the central banks and governments need to stop this inflation issue, so interest rate hikes have started happening. The rate hikes are going to affect the hot housing market and we will see a cooling off and probably a pull back on house prices as sales volumes decrease.

Lower property sales means less property developments which will lead to a building slump.

The building slump will then create a shortfall in housing supplies, which will then lead to higher rents (low supply v's higher demand for housing). After that, people will decide that they are paying too much rent, and for a bit extra, they could buy their own home and pay it off. When that happens, house prices will start to climb again and the whole process starts all over again. From what I have seen, this happens about every 8-10 years! It's the same story.

Of course, as I said earlier,, we saw this happen in 2009 with the GFC.

It happened in the early 2000's with the dot-com bubble and the terror attack in the USA

We saw something similar in the late 1980's and early 1990's with huge inflation and interest rates and the Gulf War.

The pandemic affected the markets in 2020 with a 30% downturn.

In all cases, there were those that lost large amounts of money, and those that made large amounts of money.

Those that "have seen it all before" and undertood how things would play out made money. However, the percentage of people that made money would be in single digits. Most people either lost money or never learned from previous scenarios in order to make a difference to their lives - sadly, these people chose to be ignorant.

Let's look at the latest scenarios, and I will explain my thinking and how I decided to proceed on each point.

• In late March 2020, when the pandemic hit the world, markets took a dive, dropping around 30%. By May 2020, the market had already started to turn and begin regaining lost ground. I chose to invest in companies that I believed to have been oversold. Once I was convinced that the market was again on the rise (around June 2020) I bought in.

• Oversold equities included ones that paid an average of a 6.8%pa dividend when they were $2.00. I bought these for $1.70 and they eventually climbed back up to $2.21. Not only did I benefit with a 30% capital gain, but I also earn a dividend of 8%pa (due to my lower purchase price) paid monthly. This is a huge return on my investment - especially when you consider your average person is getting interest of 1% or less on their bank savings!

• There was big hype about Electric Vehicles (EVs) post the pandemic. The hype continues today. There is also talk about "Green" energy from wind and solar. So in 2020, I looked into these possibilities. After some research, I decided that my findings show that current green energy sources cannot keep up with energy demands , and that coal exports have been constantly increasing year over year. Liquified gas has also been in high demand. Let's face it, the world will always need energy. So I invested in a Coal Exporter, in a coal distribution/export facility, an LNG Exporter and a Petroleum/Oil company - all here in Australia. The coal exporter had more than tripled in price. The LNG company has increased around 50% and the Oil company has increased 30%. The EV market on the other hand is too risky for me, as I have no idea who the winners will be. However, EVs (and internal combustion vehicles) require microchips, batteries, GPS data access etc and some sort of fuel (be it electricity or fossil fuels). So my thinking is to bet on the suppliers of such items. - When the gold rush is happening, it's much less risky and with guaranteed profits to sell the picks and shovels to the miners, rather than dig a hole yourself and hope you get the right spot in the ground!

• The sharemarket boom continued into the start of Q4 2021 and then tapered off. At this point I shifted out of growth and more into stable recession-proof dividend yeilding equities. I average a dividend return of 7% pa on my equity investments.

• Early in 2022, Russia began moving troops toward the Ukrane border. There was talk of an invasion. A quick evaluation pointed to a commodities boom due to the energy and food production interuptions potentially in Europe. I purchased commodity ETF's in the USA focussed on agriculture, and energy. I also purchased an oil company. History shows that commodity prices and spiked. Fuel in Australia has increased by 50%. - What I find strange is that there are people complaining about the price of fuel that would never consider buying shares in an oil company that produces the fuel they need! The profits these people could have made, would have offset some of the fuel increases they are complaining about.

• It is now April 10th, 2022. Russia is still in the Ukrane, commodity prices are up, and I think they will stay up for a while yet. Inflation is happening world-wide. People have less disposable household income as more is spent on food and energy. Now, because inflation is on the rise, Central Banks are looking to increase interest rates over the next 18-24 months to slow inflation. Based on history, and "having seen much of this before", I believe that people will panic, and as such, the property market will cool - maybe even see a drop in house prices up to 10-12%. There will be less spending due to higher food and energy costs. Interest rate increases will also increase mortgages which will eat into houshold budgets even more. The Russian Invasion of Ukrane has wiped out crops and other agricultural exports that the Ukrane supplied greater Europe with. Energy supplies have been disrupted also. None of these will recover this year, so high commodity prices are here to stay - for a while at least. The stock markets are in limbo due to the uncertainty from COVID, the Russia/Ukrane conflict and possible conflict (but I do not think likely) between China and Taiwan. China's building industry having major issues and may see the collapse of some major compaies as well. The world has become more cloud-computing based and software applications are now hosted on servers in the cloud. This will no doubt lead to many more hacking attempts. I believe there will be a recession in Q4 22 or Q1 23.

So, my bets for the near term (history will eventually prove me right or wrong) are as follows:

• Commodities will continue to increase for a while longer

• The right income producing equities can provide a regular dividend between 6-8% or more during volatile stock market periods.

• There are direct long-term diversified agricultural plays within Australia in unlisted trusts. There are some that produce a 12% pa return.

• There are direct long-term diversified long WALE property plays in both listed and unlisted trusts that can be considered. There are ones that produce a 7.25%pa dividend return paid monthly with a further 13% historical annual compounded capital gain - that's around a 20% return.

• The stock market will be volatile over the next 6-12 months and maybe longer. While this happens, Commodities (especially energy stocks) and big cap Australian companies that actually turn a profit and have a good balance sheet may be the play.

• Cybersecurity is a growth area and I believe this is a good medium to long term play.

• There is talk of a recession in the next 6-12 months - maybe and maybe not, but one should be setup for such a scenario if it eventuates.

• I will be keeping an eye out for the market turn from bearish to bullish.

• Direct property holdings will continue to be rented, producing regular monthly income. This is a long-term buy and hold play with no set exit date. Apart from the monthly rental returns, which grow each year, also the 10+% annual capital gain for the last 5 years has been a nice bonus.

Now, let's see how my predictions go for the above points over the next 6 - 24 months.

My investments will reflect my predictions, however, markets can change and investment strategies can also change just as quickly!

We all know that we have cycles in the stock market, cycles in the property market, cycles in interest rates and inflation, cycles in energy prices, and yet your average person never takes advantage of these cycles. The opportunities come and go, time after time, and the masses choose to remain ignorant of the opportunities or are too afraid to invest fearing loss of capital. What they do not understand is that by doing nothing, they are losing about 7% per year due to inflation - so they lose by default !

Conversely, those that are somewhat financially literate, and acquaint themselves with historical data and facts, will have increased their net worth in the last 18 months by 15-25%.

Yes, I have a plan in place for the next 2 - 8 years. However, one needs to show emotional detachment, keep calm, stay patient, trust in their judgement, and ride out this messy period.

Oh, and one other note: I have zero interest in crypto currencies. I'm not saying they are a bad investment, I'm just saying I am not interested in them - mainly because I do NOT understand them. In fact, I think few people do. Yes, some have made money on them and many more have lost money. However, because I do not understand them, I do not invest in them. If you want to know more, then read my post on "if you don't understand it or have no control over it, then leave it alone"